2055 Socioeconomic and Demographic Forecasts

Purpose of Request

Metro COG is seeking proposals with the primary objective to complete socioeconomic and demographic forecasts for the Fargo-Moorhead metropolitan area to the year 2055. The most current demographic study was completed in 2022 and set forth projections through the year 2050 for the Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), which comprises the whole of Cass County, ND, and Clay County, MN. Metro COG’s planning area encompasses thirty townships which represent portions of Cass County, North Dakota and Clay County, Minnesota (which reflects the extent of Metro COG’s regional travel demand model). The urban area includes the cities of Fargo, West Fargo, and Horace in North Dakota; and Moorhead and Dilworth in Minnesota.

Metro COG is pursuing an update to socioeconomic and demographic forecasts with a planning horizon of 2055 to address several primary needs:

• Assess and evaluate previous local/regional demographic projections and TDM forecast model information for accuracy and validity;
• Develop socioeconomic and demographic data at different geographic scales, including TDM forecast models for the years 2035 and 2055; and
• Produce socioeconomic and demographic forecasts to aid in the update of the current 2050 Fargo-Moorhead MTP (to be initiated in 2028) and to be used as a resource for jurisdictions and other entities for local planning purposes.

Project Background

Demographic forecast data is a critical element to Metro COG's metropolitan planning program. Although forecast data is used by Metro COG and local jurisdictions for a variety of purposes, its core purpose is in maintaining and updating Metro COG's regional travel demand model (TDM).

Planning for future transportation and infrastructure needs in the metropolitan area requires a realistic vision of the region’s future population, households, and employment. As these projections will be a primary tool for communities within the metropolitan area to plan for future growth, the process in which they are derived must be transparent and clear to both policymakers and stakeholders.

This forecast will consist of an update to regional demographic projections, including population, households, and employment. The projections will be aggregated for the entire MSA, and broken down by county, city, and township. Age, household size, and income characteristics shall also be analyzed as part of the forecasts. The Fargo-Moorhead metropolitan area has traditionally exceeded growth projections based on historical analyses due to the long-term health of the regional economy and economic drivers such as higher education, healthcare, agriculture, and manufacturing.